Abstract

This study argues that there is a strong link between climate change and violent conflict in the small island nations of the South Pacific which the academic literature is yet to fully grasp. Climate change appears to increase the risk of conflict, with climatic events such as droughts often preceding riots, coups, or full-scale armed conflict. Multiple phenomena associated with climate change — including water insecurity, nuclear contamination, historical tensions, gender-based violence, and political instability — exacerbate these conflicts and also have the potential to create new ones. The Pacific Islands have been grappling with these issues in recent years, with conditions deteriorating over time, making it increasingly challenging for communities in these countries to maintain peace and stability. These findings emphasise the urgent need for both policy-makers and academics to fully understand the visible and hidden connections between climate change and violent conflict in the Pacific. Addressing these links is crucial to tackling the imminent challenges threatening the existence and livelihoods of communities across these nations.

Introduction

Small island nations are increasingly at the forefront of the global climate crisis, facing numerous challenges that make them highly vulnerable. Of the 93 island nations worldwide, 18 small island nations in the South Pacific are currently grappling with pressing issues such as rising sea levels and water scarcity, which threaten both their physical existence and the livelihoods of their populations. As climate change intensifies, these regions are experiencing shifts in their ecosystems, with the risk of island submersion becoming more pronounced. The link between climate change and violent conflict in island regions is a critical area of study, offering insights into how environmental factors like water shortages and land loss can exacerbate existing tensions and lead to conflicts. This research aims to explore the dynamics of island nations and examine the various pathways through which climate change acts as a significant driver of conflict. With a better understanding of these interactions, academics and policymakers can better conceive of ways to support the regions most at risk, while helping to maintain the security and stability of small island nations in the Pacific and beyond.

Literature Review

Georges Benguigui (2011), Makereta Komai (2015), and Anouk Ride (2023) have all explored climate change and conflict hotspots in the Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Fiji. These islands face numerous challenges related to climate change, such as rising sea levels and the risk of island submersion, compounded by external factors. However, the literature lacks direct research on the other 15 Pacific Island nations. For instance, Tuvalu’s loss of land and the risk of losing its nationhood have not been widely documented, nor have Samoa’s challenges in healthcare facilities, which have resulted in the region’s economy becoming dependent on foreign aid — a situation that has also not been thoroughly examined. This gap underscores the importance of addressing these lesser-studied island nations to develop effective strategies that can help preserve them while ensuring a stable environment for the well-being of their citizens.

Literature by academics such as Nobuo Mimura (1999) and Satoshi Nakada (2011) has focused on the direct effects of climate change, like rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion in the Pacific region, but has overlooked indirect, less visible effects such as nuclear contamination, water scarcity, and gender-based violence. This article seeks to address these gaps in the documentation of the indirect effects of climate change in the Pacific. For example, there is a link between climate change and social unrest in Pacific Island nations. This was evident in Tonga, where a severe drought, exacerbated by climate change-induced El Niño events, contributed to rioting after democracy was abolished in the summer of 2006.

Literature on the Solomon Islands, such as the report by Amnesty International (August 2000) and the work of Anouk Ride from the United States Institute of Peace (2023), has examined major cases of conflict in the Solomon Islands and explored possible correlations between some of the effects of climate change and conflict risk factors. However, these studies focus narrowly on the civil war that took place from 1998-2003 and primarily consider the migration of Malaitans due to overcrowding and worsening soil conditions. This approach provides only a limited perspective on the causal factors of conflict and the specific climate change-related issues that contributed to these factors.

Small studies and literature, such as those by the National Library of Medicine (2023) and the Disaster/Climate branches of government (Tongva, 2011), effectively demonstrate that the impacts of climate change have been felt more severely by women than men in developing nations. These studies reveal disproportionate rates and severity in the decline of quality of life concerning self-dependence and mental/physical welfare among women. However, these findings have not been further explored, and actions to address the issues presented have been insufficient. Moreover, these studies are typically not considered within the broader context of climate change, leading to a lack of attention even when mitigation efforts occur. Often, these studies have been confined to women alone and, as a result, do not reflect the broader scale and impact of issues like domestic violence and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) on entire communities, including productivity, general health/well-being, financial instability, and education/literacy rates.

Water Scarcity and Climate-Induced Migration

Faced with the harsh realities of their environment, Pacific Island nations are consistently dealing with consequences such as rising sea levels and unpredictable weather patterns. For example, Fiji has embarked on a $405 million project to ensure clean water access for its citizens and to enhance water management (UNDRR, 2022). These difficulties in water supply, coupled with the ongoing threat of seawater contamination of freshwater sources — where only about 0.36% of freshwater is readily available for use (ScienceDirect, 2021) — pose a significant challenge to groundwater sustainability in the Pacific Islands. Similarly, the Solomon Islands are projected to experience extreme droughts and intense rainfall by 2050, further straining their water resources. International aid plays a crucial role in these societies as climate change progresses, with many people relying on these funds to support ecosystems and local communities. Local authorities are also investing in a $95 million project to address the instability caused by climate change, which leaves the future uncertain.

As water scarcity increases, communities are increasingly forced to migrate, leading to overcrowding in urban areas and creating tensions between local and migrant populations. According to the World Bank Blogs on “East Asia & Pacific on the Rise”, around 49 million people will be forced to relocate by 2050 due to climate change, with water insecurity being a major factor, along with land and infrastructure loss, disrupting people’s ability to carry out their daily lives.

History of Conflict in Island Nations

The Pacific Island nations have a long-standing history of conflict, particularly over resource allocation, including marine resources. These conflicts are often compounded by the involvement of global powers in various factors, such as tourism, globalisation, and the expansion of the timber industry.

New Zealand, a former British outpost, provides key examples of historical conflicts. The British Empire’s colonialism significantly impacted New Zealand’s culture, with effects that remain evident today. The issue of sovereignty led to numerous conflicts over land rights and independence, playing a major role in the New Zealand Wars from 1845 to 1872, a series of smaller conflicts between British settlers and Maori tribes (Andrews, 2019). One notable conflict was related to translation issues surrounding the Treaty of Waitangi, one of New Zealand’s founding documents (Scion, 2020). Currently, New Zealand is emphasising cultural and political ties with other Pacific Island nations, seeking to align its identity more closely with the broader Pacific Islands rather than its British colonial past.

Another key conflict in New Zealand’s past was the land dispute with the Maori in the 19th century, in which the timber industry played a significant role, particularly in the case of Mangakahia v. The New Zealand Timber Company in 1882. In December 1809, the merchant brig, Boyd, captained by John Thompson, anchored off the northern coast of New Zealand on its way back to England from Australia. The decision was made to fill the empty hold with a load of kauri spars, a type of wood ideal for making ship masts. Following this, the Maori attacked and killed the captain, officers, and most of the crew and passengers. Despite this and similar smaller incidents, there was generally a positive relationship between the Maori and the British. However, the timber industry quickly became the foundation of British colonial efforts in New Zealand, leading to rapid deforestation and increasing pressure on timber companies to expand, often to the detriment of the Maori (Johnston, 2019). This history of conflict over the scarce resource of timber, when combined with the unpredictable weather patterns and natural disasters caused by climate change, creates a precedent for a major conflict risk factor in the future. The wildfires in modern-day New Zealand, such as those in 2019 and 2020, were natural disasters strongly linked to climate change and directly affected access to timber (Scion, 2020). If these trends continue, it is likely that the historical conflict over timber resources will reemerge in the modern era.

The Solomon Islands have also been a significant source of conflict within the Pacific Islands in recent history. A prolonged period of armed conflict began in October 1998 and extended through 2003/4 (University of Edinburgh, n.d.). In September 1999, Amnesty International visited the islands of Guadalcanal and Malaita to investigate human rights abuses and discussed concerns with the government at the time. The conflict culminated in a coup d’etat by the Malaita Eagle Force, which overthrew the elected government on June 5, 2000. According to the Peace Agreements Database of the University of Edinburgh, one cause of this conflict may have been the migration of Malaitan Islanders to Guadalcanal, where overpopulation and worsening soil conditions incentivised Malaitans to flee their homeland and seek refuge on Guadalcanal, in what would become the capital city of Honiara. This migration led to tensions between the migrants and the local population, prompting the Isatabu Freedom Movement, composed of radical citizens of Guadalcanal, to launch a terrorist campaign against the rural Malaitans, forcing them to flee by creating checkpoints surrounding Honiara. In response, the Malaita Eagle Force was formed to defend the Malaitans. The government made little effort to resolve this ongoing conflict, and both groups had access to armaments left over from World War II. The Honiara Peace Accord was established in June 1999, but it ultimately failed due to resistance and fear of military prosecution. It was not until July 2003 that the Governor of the Solomon Islands requested international intervention by the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI), and, in August 2003, the Malaita Eagle Force agreed to a ceasefire. Since then, RAMSI has acted to maintain order in the Solomon Islands, particularly in Honiara. In 2003, the militias officially disbanded, and in 2013, RAMSI withdrew from Guadalcanal (Amnesty International, 2000).

Currently in the Solomon Islands, migration driven by climate change is primarily managed on a small scale. Individuals facing uninhabitable conditions on their islands often seek new land through familial connections, tribal networks, or employers. Alternatively, some may settle informally on undeveloped, disaster-prone lands in urban areas. This informal settlement trend, particularly around Honiara, poses significant risks for conflict. Historical tensions, such as those between Guale militants and Malaitan migrants, highlight the potential for conflict arising from overcrowding and inadequate services in urban areas (Ride, 2023). The ongoing risk of migration-induced conflict underscores the urgency of addressing overcrowding and improving urban infrastructure in Honiara to mitigate future tensions.

Case Studies of Climate-Induced Conflict

Climate change is compelling countries to plan for resettlement, thereby increasing the likelihood of conflict. Tuvalu, a Pacific archipelago of nine islands, is especially vulnerable due to its low elevation — most land is less than two metres above sea level — and high reliance on fishing. Projections indicate that sea levels could rise by one to two metres by 2100 if emissions are not reduced (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2022). Such a rise would inundate much of Tuvalu’s land.

Coral bleaching, exacerbated by rising sea temperatures, further undermines Tuvalu’s food security by depleting fish stocks, the islands’ primary food source. According to David Archer’s “The Long Thaw” (2008), sea level rise also leads to saltwater intrusion, contaminating freshwater aquifers and compromising agricultural productivity. As a developing and isolated nation, Tuvalu faces challenges in importing adequate freshwater and food. The loss of fish, a crucial export, exacerbates economic difficulties and heightens tensions.

Frequent droughts, intensified by climate change, contribute to the spread of waterborne diseases such as dengue fever and lymphatic filariasis (WHO, 2020). On November 8, 2022, Tuvalu declared a state of public emergency due to severe droughts and received $4 million from the Asian Development Bank for relief efforts (IOM Country Offices, 2022). The resulting migration of Tuvaluans to other Pacific Islands and New Zealand has led to cultural and linguistic erosion, causing tensions with local populations in places like Nauru and Fiji. Similar trends are observed in Vanuatu and Palau, with Kiribati purchasing land in Fiji for resettlement due to climate change and sea level rise (Caramel, 2014). Consequently, climate change increases food, water, and land insecurity, fuelling potential conflict.

In addition, a strong link can be identified between climate change and social unrest. Fiji, for instance, has experienced four coups in the past 40 years: two in 1987, one in 2000, and one in 2006. Indigenous Fijians’ fears of losing political control to Indo-Fijians, who dominate the economy, contribute to this instability (Tran, 2006). Cyclone Raja, one of Fiji’s most severe cyclones, struck in December 1986, causing extensive damage estimated at $14 million USD and possibly intensifying existing unrest. Similarly, severe flooding in April 2000, just a month before a coup, may have exacerbated discontent.

In Tonga, large riots erupted in 2006 following the King’s announcement ending democratic reforms, resulting in six deaths and 571 arrests. Earlier that year, Tonga faced a severe drought related to an El Niño event, potentially increasing public discontent and contributing to the riots.

In Papua New Guinea, climate change has compounded instability. Early 2024 saw widespread rioting and looting due to unpaid civil servants, resulting in over 20 deaths and $250 million USD in damage. A tribal war in Enga and the Upper Highlands in mid-February, driven by land disputes, reflects further instability (Chin, 2024). Rising sea levels have blurred tribal boundaries, and the El Niño event likely worsened the situation by creating drier conditions. Climate change may also have played a role in the May 2024 New Caledonia riots, which were triggered by controversial voting reforms (Muckle, 2024). These examples illustrate how climate change exacerbates pre-existing conflicts in island nations.

Finally, nuclear weapons testing, starting in 1945 and continuing through the Cold War (and beyond) resulted in an increased risk of global climate change and further conflict, affecting the population of Polynesia in particular. Between 1946 and 1996, the US, UK, and France detonated 318 nuclear devices in the Pacific region. The fallout from the French Nuclear tests has caused particular unrest to this day and continues to impact populations across Fiji, the Cook Islands, Niue, New Zealand, Samoa, Tokelau, Tonga and Tuvalu (Bolton, 2024). 

An estimated 110,000 people in French Polynesia were affected by radioactive fallout, leading to high cancer rates due to exposure from the Centaure test (BBC News, 2021). The French Polynesian Assembly demanded $930 million USD in compensation for the 193 tests conducted by France between 1966 and 1996 (Radio New Zealand, 2014). However, a court case resulted in less than 20% of victims receiving compensation due to insufficient evidence (Henley, 2021). The cover-up and underestimation of the fallout’s impact have contributed to ongoing unrest.

The graph below illustrates the global environmental impact of nuclear testing, highlighting the rise of carbon-14 levels in the 1960s. The peak in Vermut, Austria, surpasses that in Baring Head, New Zealand, due to the majority of testing occurring in the Northern Hemisphere, with some carbon-14 absorbed by oceans before reaching the Southern Hemisphere (Prăvălie, 2014). This shows the worldwide impacts of nuclear weapons testing. 

The sharp increase in carbon-14 from nuclear testing had consequences on radiocarbon dating through the “Bomb Effect”, making specimens appear younger because of the artificial carbon-14 added to the atmosphere (Beta Analytic, 2024). Although carbon-14 concentrations have dropped now to pre-industrial levels (primarily due to diffusion of carbon from the atmosphere into the oceans), the radioactive waste buried under Runit Island (part of Bikini Atoll, where the US tested some of their nuclear weapons) remains. Conflict, and the fear of it, has led major powers to pollute the area with nuclear residue from testing, which has likely had an impact on the health and well-being of people and the environment. For example, coconuts on Runit Island are radioactive from the contaminated groundwater, whilst the shells of turtles, despite being born after the end of nuclear testing in the area, still have traces of uranium because of the contaminated algae (Lucy Sherriff, 2023). This shows that nuclear weapons have the power to create global environmental consequences with the potential to fuel further conflict in the future.

Figure 1: Carbon-14 levels in Northern and Southern Hemispheres (NOAA, 2014).

Indirect Impacts of Climate Change on Communities

As demonstrated in this article, there is currently some literature in existence discussing the more concrete and easily traceable impacts of climate change, particularly in larger island nations like Fiji. However, the literature’s engagement with the subject is limited and lacks depth. A significant gap remains in understanding the indirect effects, particularly on women’s quality of life. One alarming trend as the severity of climate change has continued to compound is the rate of domestic violence against women in these island nations, and the problem of underreporting and downplaying being accepted as the new status quo. 

The normalisation of domestic violence is diminishing women’s access to work opportunities and livelihoods. Reports indicate that 73% of women in the Solomon Islands consider domestic violence acceptable under certain circumstances, and 68% of women in Kiribati have experienced gender-based violence from intimate partners (UN Fiji Multi-Country Office, n.d.). This violence forces women to depend on others, undermining their self-reliance.

Resource scarcities caused by climate change place additional pressures on women, who are expected to provide for their families despite limited access to essentials. This increased burden often results in high-stress situations, leading to domestic aggression. A study covering six Pacific Island countries revealed that 60% to 80% of surveyed women were victims of physical assault or sexual abuse, with no signs of improvement (UN Fiji Multi-Country Office, n.d.). Societal norms force women to accept this abuse, further entrenching their marginalisation and neglecting their fundamental rights.

Another emerging issue is the decline in educational opportunities for women. Due to pressures such as food shortages and the need to travel long distances for essentials, girls often miss school or drop out. Historically, such patterns intensify during crises, disproportionately affecting women who are pushed into laborious domestic and agricultural roles.

Global data links increased rates of sex- and gender-based violence to natural disasters, a trend expected to worsen with climate change. For example, a study found a 300% increase in domestic violence cases reported by the Tanna Women’s Counseling Centre following two tropical cyclones in Vanuatu (ReliefWeb, 2014). Similar patterns are emerging in the Pacific Islands, suggesting worsening conditions for women.

This violence against women not only impacts victims’ mental and physical health and contributes to intergenerational trauma, but it directly impacts the economy of these already fragile nations. As a result of increased health expenditures, such as rape kits, emergency contraceptives, treatment for injuries, and other ongoing physical traumas sustained by attacks, the work productivity of communities can be severely decreased. This is problematic because as a result, communities fall behind on their required outputs/exports, and lose out on crucial financial gains that allow them to continue to live. This causes poverty rates to rise as families cannot keep up with costs of living, and can also contribute to increased rates of starvation/malnourishment. Sex- and gender-based violence also creates a vicious cycle, as these tense situations that are perpetually created also result in more outpours of aggressions and abuse against the women of these affected communities. 

The physical health of entire communities is also at risk as a result of increased rates of sex- and gender-based violence in the Pacific Islands. According to a study by Auchus et al. (2023), island nations in the western Pacific region have some of the highest rates of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in the world. As women make the long journeys that they are expected to be making to access clean drinking water or pick up medicine, many men have begun loitering around clean water wells or memorising popular routes to supply stores, and take advantage of women as they perform their duties and as they are travelling from place to place (Yadav and Lal, 2018). This has contributed to a large spike in the prevalence of STDs, the majority of which are highly contagious, and, in the case of the Pacific Islands, these STDs often go untreated.

It is frequent for individuals to be unaware that they have been exposed to an STD, such as chlamydia, which may result in its continued spread to spouses/partners. Those affected typically do not seek treatment, and higher rates of sexual assault only exacerbate the already rapid spread of disease. Many of those affected often cannot afford treatment or do not seek it out in fear of being punished by long term partners. This phenomenon can indirectly increase rates of poverty and inhibit the achievement of sustainable development, which further worsens severe issues that have resulted from climate change. If left untreated, these infections can result in lasting health consequences. Pelvic inflammatory disease, infertility, and other complications surrounding birth are often linked to prolonged exposure to STDs. At the psychological level, the burdens of treatment costs, loss of wages from illness, psychological trauma in families, and an increased risk of contracting other diseases in the future are also risks associated with exposure to STDs (Auchus et al., 2023).

Due to the severe neglect and challenges, women in the Pacific Islands continue to face deteriorating quality of life and exposure to violence, such as sexual assault and extremely labour-intensive work. Existing power imbalances, disproportionate representation in government, and patriarchal norms obstruct progress towards a sustainable and equitable future. There is an urgent need for more research and advocacy to address these issues and mitigate further harm.

Climate Change-Induced Emigration from Fiji

Fiji, like many Pacific Island nations, is grappling with a range of climate change challenges. Rising sea levels are causing coastal erosion, inundation, and saltwater intrusion, which threaten both coastal communities and agricultural lands. These changes are increasingly displacing populations and undermining local economies. Extreme weather events, such as cyclones, floods, and droughts, are becoming more frequent and intense, resulting in widespread damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. Additionally, resource scarcity (manifesting as water shortages), reduced agricultural yields, and declining fish stocks exacerbate economic hardship for many Fijians.

These impacts are driving significant emigration from Fiji. Internally, individuals from low-lying coastal areas are moving to higher ground or urban centres in search of safer living conditions. Internationally, some Fijians are seeking opportunities abroad, with destinations often including Australia, New Zealand, or the US. This emigration has deep social and economic consequences that travel across communities and the broader economy.

One major consequence of climate change-induced emigration is the phenomenon of “brain drain”. Skilled workers and professionals, including healthcare workers and teachers, are leaving Fiji in search of better opportunities. This loss of human capital impedes development and hampers the country’s ability to respond effectively to climate change challenges. Furthermore, while remittances from emigrants can provide financial support to families and communities, they can also create a dependency on external income sources. This dependency may hinder Fiji’s sustainable development and increase vulnerability to economic shocks. Additionally, remittances can contribute to inflation and currency appreciation, further complicating economic stability.

Emigration also has significant social consequences. The separation of families and erosion of community cohesion can lead to feelings of isolation, loneliness, and anxiety among those who remain. The departure of young people and skilled workers weakens the social fabric of communities and impedes their ability to adapt to climate change. Economically, the emigration of skilled individuals reduces the domestic labour force and consumption, leading to potential downturns. The loss of human capital negatively affects economic growth and development, as people take their skills and spending power with them.

Emigration due to climate change carries both positive and negative environmental impacts. On the positive side, reduced population pressure in vulnerable areas can alleviate the strain on resources such as land, water, and forests. For example, relocating communities from low-lying coastal areas can help protect coastal ecosystems and reduce the risk of coastal erosion. However, emigration can also result in the loss of traditional ecological knowledge and practices essential for sustainable resource management and climate adaptation. When people leave, they may take their knowledge with them, creating a gap that is challenging to fill.

On a more positive note, remittances from emigrants can be used to fund climate change adaptation projects, including the construction of seawalls, sustainable agriculture initiatives, and renewable energy investments. These efforts can enhance resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts, provided that the funds are managed effectively and do not foster a dependency on external support.

Examples include Vunidogoloa Village on Vanua Levu Island, which exemplifies the issue of climate change-induced relocation in Fiji. Rising sea levels and coastal erosion rendered the village increasingly susceptible to flooding and storm surges. In 2014, the entire village was relocated to higher ground, approximately two kilometres inland. The relocation involved constructing new homes, schools, and community facilities. Despite adapting to their new surroundings, villagers faced significant challenges, including loss of cultural heritage and disruption of social networks.

Climate change has also fuelled a surge in youth migration from rural areas to urban centres or overseas. Many young people, particularly from vulnerable coastal communities, are seeking better economic opportunities and education. For instance, youths from Kadavu Island have been migrating to Suva, the capital city, to pursue jobs in the tourism and service sectors. This trend has led to a decline in rural populations and a loss of traditional skills and knowledge.

Rotuma, a small island north of Fiji, is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion. Some Rotuma residents advocate for recognition as climate refugees, seeking international protection and assistance. The debate over the definition of “climate refugee” underscores the urgent need for support and adaptation measures for vulnerable island communities like those in Rotuma.

Conclusion

To summarise, this study has explored the significant link between climate change and violent conflict in the small island nations of the South Pacific. The escalating impacts, including rising sea levels, climate-induced migration, and gender-based violence, threaten both ecosystems and socio-economic stability. As seen in nations such as Fiji, the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu, these illustrate the environmental challenges that can disrupt ecosystems and contribute to unrest.

Efforts are currently being made by authorities of these island nations, such as multi-million dollar projects to support the islands, international aid, and water management, but these may fall short in inducing long-term adaptation to climate change. More targeted actions are needed, and these actions ought to address intersectional and less visible phenomena, such as gender-based violence.

Future research should prioritise comparative studies across various Pacific Island nations, including Kiribati, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, and others. Such studies should focus on developing long-term, sustainable solutions for water supply and assessing their indirect effects on violent conflict. Additionally, evaluating the effectiveness of current technologies and strategies employed by both national and international aid programmes can help pinpoint where interventions are most needed. This approach will guide efforts toward more effective solutions for addressing the intertwined challenges of climate change and conflict in Pacific Island nations.

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