Abstract

The intersection of climate change and geopolitics has often been overlooked by scholars of political science and international relations. Climate change not only affects specific regions but also has widespread global consequences, including resource scarcities on various scales. These scarcities have led to increasing tensions and conflicts between nations. The prevailing explanation for this trend is that countries seek to control access to already limited resources, driven by fear of losing out to others and a desire to secure their own future. Most previous research has focused on the direct effects of resource scarcity on specific communities, without fully considering the potential future outcomes of ongoing conflicts or further declines in resources. This article highlights the key links between climate change and geopolitics, focusing on the Middle East, Kashmir, and the Earth’s North and South Poles.

Introduction

While resource exploitation might seem like a modern issue, the pressure on natural resources significantly intensified as early as the 18th century, when population growth accelerated. By 1800, the global population had reached one billion, increasing demand for resources. The effects of industrialisation during this period, such as environmental degradation and poor living conditions, were already evident. Despite societal advancements since then, these issues remain unresolved.

In 1972, the United Nations established the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to inspire and inform efforts aimed at improving quality of life without jeopardising the needs of future generations (UN, 2023). Later, the Brundtland Report (Brundtland, 1987) introduced the concept of sustainable development, emphasising the worsening state of the planet. This report highlighted the growing strain on natural resources due to human activities, a concern that has only increased in recent decades.

For example, levels of the three most important human-caused greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide – continued to rise throughout 2023 (NOAA, 2023). Since 1800, global temperatures have risen by about 1 degree Celsius, a clear outcome of industrialisation (NASA, 2023). The rapid transformation of the environment, driven by industrial activities, poses a serious threat to the survival of the human species.

This paper examines the extent to which resource scarcity in the Global South and other exploited regions contributes to emerging geopolitical tensions. To explore this, we will analyse (1) the impact of climate change on water and land availability, (2) the role of governance in managing scarce resources, and (3) how regional conflicts over resources are exacerbated by international competition, focusing on how demographic and economic indicators from regions such as Kashmir and the Middle East highlight these dynamics. We will also investigate (4) why unequal resource distribution often triggers migration and social unrest, and (5) how the combination of today’s multipolar world and resource scarcity could lead to further conflicts between major powers and vulnerable states. Additionally, we suggest that slowing globalisation may help address climate change, as around 20-30% of global CO2 emissions are linked to international trade.

Literature Review

Over the past decade, the literature on the relationship between climate change and geopolitics has seen a positive shift, reflecting a growing recognition that environmental changes are reshaping global politics. This increased awareness is a significant development, pushing for a more integrated perspective that includes climate factors in traditionally state-centric discussions. Scholars now acknowledge that climate-related events, such as extreme weather or resource scarcity, can influence international relations and shift power dynamics. This trend is exemplified by studies such as Mukhebir (2006), Schewe (2013) and Iglesias (2007).

However, the field remains relatively new, largely due to the lack of long-term data and the fact that climate change has only recently entered the geopolitical discourse. This makes it challenging to draw clear conclusions about the connections between climate change and geopolitical trends. While there is substantial research on how climate change can fuel conflicts in specific regions, such as the work of Evans (2010), Grossman (2000), and Mildner (2011), the broader geopolitical implications are often overlooked. Most studies focus on localised case studies rather than examining how global power struggles exacerbate issues like resource scarcity. This gap underscores the need for more research directly linking climate change and geopolitics, which is the primary motivation for this paper’s research question.

Case Study: The Middle East

The Middle East, rich in natural resources, faces significant challenges as the effects of climate change intensify. As global temperatures rise, the region is becoming increasingly vulnerable to resource scarcity, particularly in water supplies, which could threaten both regional and international security.

Historically, conflicts in the Middle East have often been linked to competition over resources. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict, for example, has long been influenced by disputes over water. Following the establishment of Israel in 1948, tensions arose over water allocation and scarcity, particularly concerning the shared resources of the Jordan River Basin, the Coastal Aquifer, and the Mountain Aquifer. Israel, with limited water resources, relies heavily on water from Palestinian territories. This dependency has exacerbated political tensions, such as in 2009 when Israel restricted Palestinian water use, requiring Palestinians to seek permits for water-related infrastructure projects, which were rarely granted.

Water scarcity in the Middle East is projected to worsen. A study by the Crisis for Strategic and International Studies predicts that by 2050 every country in the region will experience extreme water stress. Water stress occurs when the gap between supply and demand becomes critical, meaning countries rely on nearly all their available water supplies. Any disruption could trigger widespread shortages. The UN has also warned that climate change could have devastating effects on the region’s water and food systems, potentially fuelling further conflict. With rainfall becoming scarcer and temperatures more erratic, the future of the Middle East looks increasingly uncertain.

Oil has been another major driver of geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. The region’s vast reserves have long been a focus of international interest. However, the environmental consequences of oil extraction have often been disregarded. According to the World Wildlife Fund, oil and gas operations contribute significantly to air and water pollution, and the production, transport and processing of these resources account for 15% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions.

The geopolitical importance of oil was demonstrated during the 1973 Arab oil embargo, when the price of oil skyrocketed in retaliation for US support of Israel. This led to structural challenges for national economies worldwide. A study by the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security warns that as reserves in non-Middle Eastern countries become depleted, the Middle East will become an even more dominant player in the global oil market, further intensifying geopolitical competition.

Case Study: Kashmir

The Kashmir conflict between India and Pakistan is one of the most enduring geopolitical tensions in the world, characterised by territorial disputes, historical grievances, and nationalistic fervour. The region’s importance is magnified by its strategic location and abundant natural resources, which are increasingly threatened by climate change. Resource scarcity, particularly regarding water and arable land, is becoming a critical factor in exacerbating tensions between these two nuclear-armed neighbours. This section explores the extent to which resource scarcity in the Global South, particularly in Kashmir, reflects emerging geopolitical tensions, focusing on the implications of climate change.

The roots of the Kashmir conflict can be traced back to the partition of British India in 1947, which led to the creation of India and Pakistan. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir, which was predominantly Muslim but ruled by a Hindu Maharaja, became a focal point of contention. When the Maharaja chose to accede to India, Pakistan contested the decision, leading to the first Indo-Pakistani war. Since then, the region has witnessed multiple conflicts and skirmishes, with both nations claiming it in full but controlling only parts of it (International Crisis Group, 2020).

The geopolitical significance of Kashmir is further complicated by the involvement of China, which controls the Aksai Chin region and has strategic interests in the area (International Crisis Group, 2020). The ongoing tensions have led to militarisation along the Line of Control, with both countries investing heavily in military infrastructure and capabilities.

Water scarcity is a pressing issue in the Kashmir region, with the Indus River system being the primary source of water for both India and Pakistan. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960, brokered by the World Bank, allocated water rights to both countries, but climate change is threatening the delicate balance established by this treaty.

Glacial melt in the Himalayas, which feeds into the Indus River system, is occurring at an alarming rate due to rising temperatures. A study published in the journal “Nature” indicates that glaciers in the region could lose up to 70% of their mass by the end of the century if current trends continue (Bolch et al., 2012). This loss of glacial mass not only threatens the water supply for millions, but also increases the risk of glacial lake outburst floods, which can devastate local communities.

Agriculture is the backbone of the Kashmiri economy, employing a significant portion of the population. However, the agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to climate change, with erratic weather patterns leading to crop failures and reduced yields. A report by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) highlights that changing rainfall patterns and increased temperatures are likely to decrease agricultural productivity in the region (FAO, 2018).

The scarcity of water and arable land is further compounded by the ongoing conflict, which disrupts agricultural activities and displaces communities. Farmers in both Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered Kashmir face challenges in accessing resources, leading to increased poverty and social unrest (International Crisis Group, 2020).

The scarcity of resources in Kashmir has led to increased militarisation by both India and Pakistan. Each country views control over water and agricultural resources as vital to national security, leading to heightened tensions along the line of control. The construction of dams and water diversion projects by India, such as the Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project, has been met with strong opposition from Pakistan, which views these actions as violations of the Indus Water Treaty (Observer Research Foundation, 2023).

The militarisation of the region has created a cycle of violence, with both countries engaging in military posturing and skirmishes. The presence of armed forces in the region has not only escalated tensions but also contributed to human rights violations against local populations. Reports from organisations such as Amnesty International have documented instances of extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary detentions in Kashmir, further fuelling resentment and hostility (Amnesty International, 2015).

The geopolitical tensions arising from resource scarcity in Kashmir have broader implications for regional stability in South Asia. The conflict has the potential to destabilise neighbouring countries, particularly Afghanistan, where both India and Pakistan have vested interests. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has created a power vacuum that both countries are eager to fill, leading to increased competition and proxy conflicts. Moreover, the involvement of China in the region complicates matters further. China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects in Pakistan, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through areas claimed by India. This has led to concerns in New Delhi about China’s growing influence in South Asia and its implications for India’s security (Observer Research Foundation, 2023).

The impact of climate change on resource scarcity in Kashmir is likely to worsen in the coming years. As temperatures continue to rise, the region will face increased water stress, leading to competition over resources. This competition could exacerbate existing tensions and lead to conflict, particularly if one side perceives that the other is gaining an unfair advantage in resource allocation.

A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasises the need for adaptive strategies to address the impacts of climate change on water resources in South Asia (IPCC, 2019). Collaborative efforts between India and Pakistan to manage shared water resources could serve as a confidence-building measure, potentially paving the way for dialogue and conflict resolution.

The Kashmir conflict is a complex interplay of historical grievances, nationalistic aspirations and geopolitical rivalries. As climate change exacerbates resource scarcity in the region, these tensions are likely to intensify, posing serious challenges to regional stability and security. Addressing the underlying issues of resource scarcity and climate change is essential for achieving lasting peace in Kashmir. Both India and Pakistan must prioritise dialogue and cooperation over militarisation and conflict. The international community also has a crucial role to play in facilitating discussions and supporting sustainable development initiatives in the region.

To summarise what was said in this section, the Kashmir conflict serves as an important reminder of how resource scarcity can fuel geopolitical tensions, particularly in a climate-affected world. Only through collaborative efforts can the region hope to overcome these challenges and pave the way for a more stable and prosperous future.

Case Study: The Poles

Shifting the focus to the polar regions, the Arctic and Antarctic hold significant geopolitical importance, particularly due to their untapped resources and emerging trade routes. While literature on the geopolitical dynamics in Antarctica is relatively sparse, the exploitation of marine and mineral resources in polar regions has garnered increasing international attention, particularly in light of climate change.

Globalisation, largely driven by maritime trade, has underscored the importance of oceans, which hold vast fishery, energy, and mineral resources. The Suez Canal, a critical maritime route, experienced a significant drop in traffic due to attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, raising concerns over international trade security. As conflicts increase globally, new trade routes, such as the Northern Sea Route through the Arctic, are gaining prominence.

The shift to a multipolar world further complicates geopolitical dynamics in polar regions. While some scholars argue that the world is still dominated by the US and China, others, such as Tim Marshall, highlight Russia’s growing influence in the Arctic (Marshall, 2015). Russia’s claims to the Lomonosov Ridge, believed to be rich in gas fields, have sparked tensions with Denmark, which also asserts its ownership over this area. Russia’s military presence in the Arctic, including its fleet of 44 icebreakers (five of which are nuclear-powered), positions it as the dominant power in the region (High North News, 2023).

In contrast, the US lacks significant icebreaking capabilities, and China, while not a member of the Arctic Five, plays a growing role in the region through scientific research and investments. Russia’s control over the Northern Sea Route allows it to regulate international trade during the short periods when the Arctic ice is passable, giving it a strategic advantage in the region. The melting ice is also revealing valuable resources, such as hydrocarbons, further intensifying geopolitical competition.

As global gas demand continues to rise, resource extraction in the Arctic could become a source of conflict. The United Nations Environment Programme (2019) reports that resource extraction has more than tripled since 1970, driven by a 45% increase in fossil fuel consumption. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has already had profound effects on global gas markets, raising concerns about energy security and the potential for intentional disruptions to critical infrastructure (Sadamori, 2024).

Tim Marshall argues that the melting Arctic ice has transformed once-theoretical resources into tangible assets, increasing the likelihood of geopolitical conflict over access and control (Marshall, 2015). The loss of Arctic sea ice, which is occurring at a rate of nearly 13% per decade, has global implications, including rising sea levels that threaten coastal regions such as the Maldives, Bangladesh, and New York City (World Wildlife Foundation, 2019).

Conclusion

The intricate relationship between resource scarcity and geopolitical tensions is increasingly evident in regions such as the Middle East, South Asia, and the Earth’s poles. In Kashmir, resource scarcity driven by climate change has significantly influenced the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan. The Indus River system, critical to both nations, faces threats from glacial melt and changing precipitation patterns, raising the stakes for water resource control. Declining agricultural productivity due to erratic weather further increases the potential for conflict, underscoring the need for cooperative resource management.

In the Arctic, while direct conflict has not yet materialised, the melting of the ice and the emergence of new trade routes pose significant geopolitical risks. As nations compete for control of the region’s valuable resources, the potential for conflict will likely grow, particularly as global demand for fossil fuels increases.

Resource scarcity, particularly in a climate-affected world, is a powerful driver of geopolitical tensions. Addressing these issues requires international cooperation, adaptive strategies, and a commitment to sustainable resource management. Only through collaborative efforts can regions like Kashmir, the Arctic, and the Sahel hope to overcome the challenges posed by climate change and secure a more stable and prosperous future.

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